Gregory Bryant, CPA Esq
Caroline Byrd, Intern
Connor Bryant, Intern
2025 will inevitably be a year of change in the United States, hopefully for the better. We have predicted what we believe will be “in” and “out” in the new year for business, regulation, the economy, and more.
What’s In Tax Reform
President-elect Trump has pledged to stop taxing tips and social security benefits, and through a reconciliation bill extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which he originally signed into law in 2017, these aims could be accomplished. Additionally, a second reconciliation bill would provide additional tax reform measures promised by Trump on the campaign trail last year. With no tax on tips having bipartisan support, if it is not packaged into the TCJA, this change will be implemented quickly to guarantee the Trump campaign’s promise. To read more about Trump’s proposed tax plans, see https://biltgroup.net/election-economics-key-takeaways-from-the-2024-presidential-tax-plans/.
Immigration Law Reform
Legal immigration will be favored with expansion of the H1-B, L-1, and E programs. The H1-B program allows employers in highly specialized fields to hire educated employees from countries other than the US. The L-1 visa classification allows international companies to temporarily transfer valuable employees from foreign offices to work in the US. E visas apply to treaty traders or treaty investors (and their employees) that work in the US under a commerce treaty with their home country. Through these programs and their potential expansion, the US can foster economic growth and technological advancement.
Drilling
Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill!” stance to increase domestic oil and gas production will cause energy, gas, diesel, jet fuel, and electricity rates to come down 30%. An Exxon executive stated that, although a “radical change (in production) is unlikely” because of the associated costs, Exxon still expects growth in production until at least 2030.
Overall Economic Growth
With the new administration and America first policies, foreign capital will likely pour into the US. Although the tariff threats raise concerns about global trade, Trump’s “pro-business policies are fueling a sense of optimism” for investors. This, along with the Fed lowering rates, will stimulate the economy. We predict the Fed will drop rates two more times, for a total decrease of a 50 basis points. Additionally, we predict that the US economy will experience at least 4% growth in 2025.
What’s Out Government Spending
Expect federal spending to drop significantly in 2025. Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, have set a goal of cutting $2 trillion in government spending. Whether or not this goal is obtainable is in question, but the number is less important than the overall goal of cutting spending. Cutting federal spending frees up money to be put back into the U.S. economy and saves taxpayers money. DOGE will encounter significant headwinds from the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), which represents approximately 800,000 federal workers, lobbyists, and entrenched special interests. DOGE may succeed to some degree by eliminating some agencies all together, consolidating overlapping agencies, selling off idle real estate (a lot of that), and reducing headcount through automation and technology.
Production Outside the United States
Trump will sign executive orders on day one that will place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% to 60% tariff on China with the goal being to bring more production and manufacturing markets to the United States. By placing these tariffs, companies will want to work within U.S. borders to avoid hefty tariff fees that will hurt their profits and ability to sell to consumers. Honda produces in Mexico and exports around 80% to the United States, but with the new set of tariffs, they will be forced to move within the United States or elsewhere to avoid setbacks. The retail sector will also be shaken up from tariffs on Chinese products. For business strategies and more specific analysis, see https://biltgroup.net/strategies-for-resilience-and-cost-optimization/.
Regulations
Trump has criticized the Biden administration since he left office in 2020, especially for their decisions to increase regulations for U.S. companies. Environmental regulations will be targeted as they were in Trump’s first presidential term. The cutbacks will probably not end there as Trump’s team will likely target most of Biden’s regulations like the Affordable Care Act and more within the healthcare industry with the advice of RFK Jr. With the implementation of DOGE and the promises Trump made on the campaign trail, the new administration has set a goal to downsize the government’s control over the American people and allow for a freer market to exist in the United States.
Work from Home
In-person, in-office work is making a comeback in 2025. Return-to-office (“RTO”) has already started catching on, with some of the biggest businesses reinstating a mandatory RTO requirement. Amazon announced its policy in September 2024, and all Amazon employees began reporting to the office on January 2, 2025, stating that the RTO requirement would serve to strengthen company culture and boost collaboration. Additionally, JPMorgan has announced that all employees will be returning to the office in March. Trump has also threatened to fire government employees who do not return to their offices.
2025 trends present significant opportunities for businesses to thrive through tax reforms, streamlined regulations, and domestic growth initiatives. By leveraging these changes, companies can position themselves for long-term success in a competitive and evolving market.
Sources
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ces-trumps-tariff-threat-spurs-auto-suppliers-rethink-production-plans-2025-01-09/
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/immigration/h1b
https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-2-part-l-chapter-1
https://www.uscis.gov/i-9-central/complete-correct-form-i-9/e-visas
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-oil-producers-unlikely-shift-drill-baby-drill-mode-says-exxon-executive-2024-11-26/
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-investment-outlooks/?embedded-checkout=true
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ces-trumps-tariff-threat-spurs-auto-suppliers-rethink-production-plans-2025-01-09/
https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/trump2-0-day-one.html
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/spending-cuts-2025
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/elon-musk-says-doge-probably-wont-find-2-trillion-federal-budget-cuts-rcna186924
https://www.forbes.com/sites/terinaallen/2025/01/10/the-jpmorgan-memo-ends-remote-work-and-tells-employees-to-return-to-office/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/trump-unleash-nearly-40-tariffs-china-early-2025-hitting-growth-2024-11-20/
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/12/how-china-tariffs-could-backfire-on-u-s/
2025 Ins and Outs: Predictions for the New Year
Gregory Bryant, CPA Esq
Caroline Byrd, Intern
Connor Bryant, Intern
2025 will inevitably be a year of change in the United States, hopefully for the better. We have predicted what we believe will be “in” and “out” in the new year for business, regulation, the economy, and more.
What’s In Tax Reform
President-elect Trump has pledged to stop taxing tips and social security benefits, and through a reconciliation bill extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which he originally signed into law in 2017, these aims could be accomplished. Additionally, a second reconciliation bill would provide additional tax reform measures promised by Trump on the campaign trail last year. With no tax on tips having bipartisan support, if it is not packaged into the TCJA, this change will be implemented quickly to guarantee the Trump campaign’s promise. To read more about Trump’s proposed tax plans, see https://biltgroup.net/election-economics-key-takeaways-from-the-2024-presidential-tax-plans/.
Immigration Law Reform
Legal immigration will be favored with expansion of the H1-B, L-1, and E programs. The H1-B program allows employers in highly specialized fields to hire educated employees from countries other than the US. The L-1 visa classification allows international companies to temporarily transfer valuable employees from foreign offices to work in the US. E visas apply to treaty traders or treaty investors (and their employees) that work in the US under a commerce treaty with their home country. Through these programs and their potential expansion, the US can foster economic growth and technological advancement.
Drilling
Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill!” stance to increase domestic oil and gas production will cause energy, gas, diesel, jet fuel, and electricity rates to come down 30%. An Exxon executive stated that, although a “radical change (in production) is unlikely” because of the associated costs, Exxon still expects growth in production until at least 2030.
Overall Economic Growth
With the new administration and America first policies, foreign capital will likely pour into the US. Although the tariff threats raise concerns about global trade, Trump’s “pro-business policies are fueling a sense of optimism” for investors. This, along with the Fed lowering rates, will stimulate the economy. We predict the Fed will drop rates two more times, for a total decrease of a 50 basis points. Additionally, we predict that the US economy will experience at least 4% growth in 2025.
What’s Out Government Spending
Expect federal spending to drop significantly in 2025. Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, have set a goal of cutting $2 trillion in government spending. Whether or not this goal is obtainable is in question, but the number is less important than the overall goal of cutting spending. Cutting federal spending frees up money to be put back into the U.S. economy and saves taxpayers money. DOGE will encounter significant headwinds from the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), which represents approximately 800,000 federal workers, lobbyists, and entrenched special interests. DOGE may succeed to some degree by eliminating some agencies all together, consolidating overlapping agencies, selling off idle real estate (a lot of that), and reducing headcount through automation and technology.
Production Outside the United States
Trump will sign executive orders on day one that will place 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% to 60% tariff on China with the goal being to bring more production and manufacturing markets to the United States. By placing these tariffs, companies will want to work within U.S. borders to avoid hefty tariff fees that will hurt their profits and ability to sell to consumers. Honda produces in Mexico and exports around 80% to the United States, but with the new set of tariffs, they will be forced to move within the United States or elsewhere to avoid setbacks. The retail sector will also be shaken up from tariffs on Chinese products. For business strategies and more specific analysis, see https://biltgroup.net/strategies-for-resilience-and-cost-optimization/.
Regulations
Trump has criticized the Biden administration since he left office in 2020, especially for their decisions to increase regulations for U.S. companies. Environmental regulations will be targeted as they were in Trump’s first presidential term. The cutbacks will probably not end there as Trump’s team will likely target most of Biden’s regulations like the Affordable Care Act and more within the healthcare industry with the advice of RFK Jr. With the implementation of DOGE and the promises Trump made on the campaign trail, the new administration has set a goal to downsize the government’s control over the American people and allow for a freer market to exist in the United States.
Work from Home
In-person, in-office work is making a comeback in 2025. Return-to-office (“RTO”) has already started catching on, with some of the biggest businesses reinstating a mandatory RTO requirement. Amazon announced its policy in September 2024, and all Amazon employees began reporting to the office on January 2, 2025, stating that the RTO requirement would serve to strengthen company culture and boost collaboration. Additionally, JPMorgan has announced that all employees will be returning to the office in March. Trump has also threatened to fire government employees who do not return to their offices.
2025 trends present significant opportunities for businesses to thrive through tax reforms, streamlined regulations, and domestic growth initiatives. By leveraging these changes, companies can position themselves for long-term success in a competitive and evolving market.
Sources
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ces-trumps-tariff-threat-spurs-auto-suppliers-rethink-production-plans-2025-01-09/
https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/immigration/h1b
https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-2-part-l-chapter-1
https://www.uscis.gov/i-9-central/complete-correct-form-i-9/e-visas
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-oil-producers-unlikely-shift-drill-baby-drill-mode-says-exxon-executive-2024-11-26/
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-investment-outlooks/?embedded-checkout=true
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ces-trumps-tariff-threat-spurs-auto-suppliers-rethink-production-plans-2025-01-09/
https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/trump2-0-day-one.html
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/spending-cuts-2025
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/elon-musk-says-doge-probably-wont-find-2-trillion-federal-budget-cuts-rcna186924
https://www.forbes.com/sites/terinaallen/2025/01/10/the-jpmorgan-memo-ends-remote-work-and-tells-employees-to-return-to-office/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/trump-unleash-nearly-40-tariffs-china-early-2025-hitting-growth-2024-11-20/
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/12/how-china-tariffs-could-backfire-on-u-s/
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2025 Ins and Outs: Predictions for the New Year
Gregory Bryant, CPA EsqCaroline Byrd, InternConnor Bryant, Intern 2025 will inevitably be a year of change in the United States,
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